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By Staff Reporters

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The outcome of today’s midterm elections could be influenced by something the government has little control over: the cost of filling up your car with gas. Since the 1970s, presidential approval ratings have tended to sag when gas prices rise. And that correlation has been especially pronounced this year as inflation has run rampant and gas prices have spiked.

• The Washington Post found that the share of Americans who said the country was on the right track has moved remarkably in sync with gas prices.
• Since gas prices peaked in June, the correlation between Democratic generic-ballot polling and the price of gas clocked in at minus-.91, nearly a perfect inverse correlation (which is minus-1).

NOTE: Recall that correlation is NOT causation!

Why are gas prices so powerful?

Gas prices are the only consumer good whose price we’re reminded of virtually every time we leave the house, experts say. Unlike salmon fish or outdoor patio furniture, ties, shirts or sneakers, the price of gas is advertised in size-500 font on huge signs that you can’t help but notice. In fact, gas prices have been so beaten into us that they can change our behavior over decades. Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania discovered that people who experienced raging gas prices in their formative driving years in the 1970s seemed less likely to drive to work 20 years later than other age cohorts.

The curious part about the link between voter sentiment and gas prices is that gas prices have very little to do with the White House. Gas prices are largely influenced by the price of crude oil, which is a globally traded commodity. That commodity has been dealt a shock this year by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, technical snags with refineries in the US, and OPEC+’s production cuts.

Still, President Biden’s team is fully aware of the importance of gas prices, which explains his incessant attacks on oil companies’ windfall profits, his releasing of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and his visit to Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer.

Price check?

The current national average for a gallon of unleaded gas is $3.80, per AAA. That’s roughly the same as a month ago, down significantly from the record of more than $5, but about 38 cents more than a year ago.

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