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BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS

By Staff Reporters

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Prospect theory is a psychological and behavioral economics theory developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. It explains how people make decisions when faced with alternatives involving risk, probability, and uncertainty. According to this theory, decisions are influenced by perceived losses or gains.

Example:

Amanda, a DO client, was just informed by her financial advisor that she needed to re-launch her 403-b retirement plan. Since she was leery about investing, she quietly wondered why she couldn’t DIY. Little does her FA know that she doesn’t intend to follow his advice, anyway! So, what went wrong?

The answer may be that her advisor didn’t deploy a behavioral economics framework to support her decision-making. One such framework is the “prospect theory” model that boils client decision-making into a “three step heuristic.”
 
Prospect theory makes the unspoken biases that we all have more explicit. By identifying all the background assumptions and preferences that clients [patients] bring to the office, decision-making can be crafted so that everyone [family, doctor and patient] or [FA, client and spouse] is on the same page. Briefly, the three steps are:

1. Simplify choices by focusing on the key differences between investment [treatment] options such as stock, bonds, cash, and index funds. 

2. Understanding that clients [patients] prefer greater certainty when it comes to pursuing financial [health] gains and are willing to accept uncertainty when trying to avoid a loss [illness].

3. Cognitive processes lead clients and patients to overestimate the value of their choices thanks to survivor bias, cognitive dissonance, appeals to authority and hindsight biases.

Assessment

Much like healthcare today, the current mass-customized approaches to the financial services industry falls short of recognizing more personalized advisory approaches like prospect theory and assisted client-centered investment decision-making.

 Jaan E. Sidorov MD [Harrisburg, PA]   

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Filed under: "Ask-an-Advisor", "Doctors Only", Ethics, Experts Invited, Financial Planning, Funding Basics, Glossary Terms, Health Economics, Healthcare Finance, Investing, LifeStyle | Tagged: Amos Tverskey, bears, behavioral economics, bulls, clients, decision making, decision-making, DO, DPM, finance, financial gains, financial loss, heuristics, investments, Kahneman, MD, money, personal-finance, Prospect Theory, Sidorov MD |