• Member Statistics

    • 735,548 Colleagues-to-Date [Sponsored by a generous R&D grant from iMBA, Inc.]
  • Our ME-P Channels

  • ME-P Archives Silo [2006 – 2018]

  • Dr. David Marcinko [Publisher-in-Chief]

    As a Distinguished University Professor and Endowed Department Chairman, Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBBS DPM MBA MEd BSc CMP® was a NYSE broker and investment banker for a decade who was respected for his unique perspectives, balanced contrarian thinking and measured judgment to influence key decision makers in strategic education, health economics, finance, investing and public policy management.

    Dr. Marcinko is originally from Loyola University MD, Temple University in Philadelphia and the Milton S. Hershey Medical Center in PA; Oglethorpe University and Atlanta Hospital & Medical Center in GA; and Aachen City University Hospital, Koln-Germany. He is one of the most innovative global thought leaders in health care entrepreneurship today by leveraging and adding value with strategies to grow revenues and EBITDA while reducing nonessential expenditures and improving operational efficiencies.

    Professor Marcinko was a board certified physician, surgical fellow, hospital medical staff Vice President, public and population health advocate, and Chief Executive & Education Officer with more than 425 published papers; 5,150 op-ed pieces and over 135+ domestic / international presentations to his credit; including the top ten [10] biggest drug and pharmaceutical companies and financial services firms in the nation. He is also a best-selling Amazon author with 30 published text books in four languages [National Institute of Health, Library of Congress and Library of Medicine].

    Dr. Marcinko is past Editor-in-Chief of the prestigious “Journal of Health Care Finance”, and a former Certified Financial Planner® who was named “Health Economist of the Year” in 2010, by PM magazine. He is a Federal and State court approved expert witness featured in hundreds of peer reviewed medical, business, economics and trade publications [AMA, ADA, APMA, AAOS, Physicians Practice, Investment Advisor, Physician’s Money Digest and MD News] etc.

    Dr. Marcinko is also an early-stage investor with a focus on finance, economics and business IT. He was on the initial team for Physicians-Nexus®, 1st. Global Financial Advisors and Physician Services Group Inc; and as a mentor for Deloitte-Touche, Accenture and other start-ups in Silicon Valley, CA.

    As a licensed life and health insurance agent, RIA – SEC registered representative, Dr. Marcinko was Founding Dean of the fiduciary niche focused CERTIFIED MEDICAL PLANNER® online chartered designation education program; as well as Chief Editor of the HEALTH DICTIONARY SERIES® Wiki Project.

    Dr. Marcinko’s professional memberships included: ASHE, AHIMA, ACHE, ACME, ACPE, MGMA, FMMA and HIMSS. He was a MSFT Beta tester, Google Scholar, “H” Index favorite and one of LinkedIn’s “Top Cited Voices”. Marcinko is “ex-officio” and R&D Scholar-on-Sabbatical for iMBA, Inc. who was recently appointed to the MedBlob® [military encrypted medical data warehouse and health information exchange] Advisory Board.

    entrepreneur

    Frontal_lobe_animation

  • Hope Hetico RN MS [Managing Editor]

    Prof. Hetico

     

     

     

     

    ME-P SYNDICATIONS:
    WSJ.com,
    CNN.com,
    Forbes.com,
    WashingtonPost.com,
    BusinessWeek.com,
    USNews.com, Reuters.com,
    TimeWarnerCable.com,
    e-How.com,
    News Alloy.com,
    and Congress.org

    Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners(TM)

    Product Details

    Product Details

    Product Details

  • CERTIFIED MEDICAL PLANNER® program

    New "Self-Directed" Study Option SinceJanuary 1st, 2018
  • PodiatryPrep.org


    BOARD CERTIFICATION EXAM STUDY GUIDES
    Lower Extremity Trauma
    [Click on Image to Enlarge]

  • Most Recent ME-Ps

  • ME-P Free Adverting Sales Consultation

    The “Medical Executive-Post” is about connecting doctors, health care executives and modern consulting advisors. It’s about free-enterprise, business, practice, policy, personal financial planning and wealth building capitalism. We have an attitude that’s independent, outspoken, intelligent and so Next-Gen; often edgy, usually controversial. And, our consultants “got fly”, just like U. Read it! Write it! Post it! “Medical Executive-Post”. Call or email us for your FREE advertising and sales consultation TODAY [770.448.0769]

    Product Details

    Product Details

  • Medical & Surgical e-Consent Forms

    ePodiatryConsentForms.com
  • iMBA White Papers

    Customized Industry Topics [$1,500 unlimited corporate license]January 1st, 2018
    Medical Clinic Valuations * Endowment Fund Management * Health Capital Formation * Investment Policy Statement Analysis * Provider Contracting & Negotiations * Marketplace Competition * Revenue Cycle Enhancements; and more! HEALTHCARE FINANCIAL INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
  • Ann Miller RN MHA [Executive-Director]

    iMBA VIRTUAL OFFICES [1.770.448.0769] Atlanta, GA.
    Location doesn't matter. We welcome new long-distance clients and colleagues.

  • ME-P Publishing

  • SEEKING INDUSTRY PARTNERS?

    If you want the opportunity to work with leading health care industry insiders, innovators and watchers, the “ME-P” may be right for you? We are unbiased and operate at the nexus of theoretical and applied R&D. Collaborate with us and you’ll put your brand in front of a smart & tightly focused demographic; one at the forefront of our emerging healthcare free marketplace of informed and professional “movers and shakers.” Our Ad Rate Card is available upon request [770-448-0769].

  • Reader Comments, Quips, Opinions, News & Updates

  • Start-Up Advice for Businesses, DRs and Entrepreneurs

    ImageProxy “Providing Management, Financial and Business Solutions for Modernity”
  • Up-Trending ME-Ps

  • Capitalism and Free Enterprise Advocacy

    Whether you’re a mature CXO, physician or start-up entrepreneur in need of management, financial, HR or business planning information on free markets and competition, the "Medical Executive-Post” is the online place to meet for Capitalism 2.0 collaboration. Support our online development, and advance our onground research initiatives in free market economics, as we seek to showcase the brightest Next-Gen minds. ******************************************************************** THE ME-P DISCLAIMER: Posts, comments and opinions do not necessarily represent iMBA, Inc. Copyright © 2006 to-date. iMBA, Inc allows colleges, universities, medical and financial professionals and related clinics, hospitals and non-profit healthcare organizations to distribute our proprietary essays, photos, videos, audios and other documents; etc. However, please review copyright and usage information for each individual asset before placement on your publication or web site. Attestation references, citations and/or back-links are required. All other assets are property of the individual copyright holder.
  • OIG Fraud Warnings

    Beware of health insurance marketplace scams OIG's Most Wanted Fugitives at oig.hhs.gov
  • Advertisements

Questions I’d be Asking If I Owned Tesla Stock

Questions I’d be Asking If I Owned Tesla Stock

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

 What happened to 345,000 reservations?

When Tesla’s Model 3 was released, it was supposed to be a $35,000 car. Four hundred thousand people, including yours truly, put down a $1,000 deposit to reserve their spots in line so they could get their hands on that marvel as soon as it became available. It was a brilliant move by Tesla, as it provided the company $400 million of interest-free financing — the biggest crowdfunding project ever.

Today, after some delays, the Model 3 is being produced. However, $35,000 seems to have been a fiction of CEO Elon Musk’s imagination. Though the car is getting great reviews from auto critics, the price for a bare-bones Model 3 starts at $49,000, and the tax incentives are fading away.

But something interesting happened recently. I received an email from Tesla that said: Model 3 is available to order, and no reservation is required in the U.S. We’re now offering all our best options — including our Long Range and Performance configurations with dual motor all-wheel drive. You can design and order yours today for delivery in approximately 2–4 months.

On the surface this sounds like great news, except that it begs a question: What happened to 345,000 orders? Let me explain. According to Bloomberg, which has been tracking Tesla’s production, to date (as of July 28, 2018) Tesla has produced 55,000 Model 3 cars. Since a $1,000 deposit was supposed to secure buyers a place in line, any car ordered today will only be delivered after orders that were placed years ago are fulfilled — after all, 400,000 people paid Tesla $1,000 to hold their places.

Thus there are only three possible explanations for the email I received. One is that Model 3 production is expected to accelerate at an exponential rate to 40,000 cars a week, starting now. However, Bloomberg estimates that Tesla’s normal production cadence of the Model 3 is closer to 2,825 cars a week, so this is a highly unlikely scenario.

Or two, maybe Tesla has been extremely liberal with its statement of a two-to-four month delivery schedule because it still has 345,000 cars to produce before it can start fulfilling new orders, and the company is using that email to raise additional funds from new customers making deposits. (The required deposit is now $2,500.)

There is a third explanation: The bulk of the original 400,000 orders were for a $35,000 car. When it came time to actually buy the car, consumers may have realized that the out-of-pocket expense was much more than expected and simply canceled their orders, draining Tesla’s balance sheet of $345 million.

How sound is Tesla’s balance sheet?

What Musk has achieved with Tesla and SpaceX is truly astounding. I have incredible respect for him, but he is also a magician playing a confidence game. If Musk can continue to convince the market that Tesla has a bright future, then the market will continue to finance Tesla’s losses, and maybe Musk will figure out how to produce the Model 3 more cheaply and then Tesla will sell hundreds of thousands of Model 3s and the future will be as bright as Musk paints it.

For that to happen, Tesla needs to maintain its high stock price, and investors have to believe that Musk is the Iron Man. Investors have to suspend belief, ignore current problems, and focus on the future. However, if the market loses confidence in Tesla and Musk, Tesla is done. This company is losing billions of dollars a year; it has an over-levered balance sheet. This is where Musk’s confidence game comes in.

If you believe in magic stop reading right now. Okay, you’ve been warned.

There is no magic. Magic is just the art of misdirection. The magician gets you to focus on the shiny object he holds in his left hand and you don’t see what he is doing with his right hand.

Musk has been showing us a lot of shiny objects. Some are real, like the success of SpaceX; some are superfluous, like sending a Tesla Roadster into space, and some are future promises on which Musk may or may not be able to deliver, like his futuristic underground railroad for cars (the hyperloop) and the Tesla truck, which is unlikely to be produced on time and at the promised price. The list is long in this category and never-ending; Musk’s futuristic thinking knows no bounds.

But importantly, these promises are the shiny objects that keep Tesla’s stock price high.

If I was a Tesla investor I’d be seriously worried about the company’s balance sheet. There are some ominous signs that Tesla’s financial situation is deteriorating rapidly. Tesla reportedly recently sent an email to its suppliers asking them to give some money back to help the company with its profitability.

Such requests are made by companies looking for Hail Mary solutions to significant financial problems. If suppliers start questioning Tesla’s financial viability, they’ll start shortening their accounts receivables periods and start requesting letters of credit. This would escalate the company’s problems. Hail Marys are acts of desperation. Putting this in the context of the likely Model 3 cancellations, — Tesla’s cash burn has likely gotten a lot worse.

 How effective is Musk at running Tesla?

Tesla is Elon Musk. He has achieved more than many of us will achieve in a thousand lifetimes. But today Musk is running half a dozen companies (Tesla, SpaceX, Solar City, Boring, OpenAI, Hyperloop). To make matters worse, he is also an incredible micromanager. I read that he interviews (or at least used to) every new employee who joins Tesla and SpaceX.

It is clear that Musk is quite exhausted, and his behavior is becoming more erratic. In a conference call snafu in April, he called the British diver who saved the Thai cave kids a “pedo” on Twitter. This sort of thing undermines Musk’s Iron Man image — if he loses that, the confidence game is lost and Tesla is done.

Another red flag went up recently: Musk started to attack short sellers. A short seller who went under the name of Montana Sceptic posted negative research on Tesla on Twitter and SeekingAlpha. Elon Musk personally called the man’s employer and threatened a lawsuit if the employer didn’t silence Montana Sceptic. Historically, companies that have gone after short sellers have had something to hide or were playing a confidence game. (The short sellers were interfering with the misdirection to shiny objects.)

Assessment

Tesla investors are still fascinated by the shiny objects, but I note that CDS insurance on Tesla’s bonds prices in a 24% risk of default by 2025. I am not long or short the stock. But if I were long Tesla’s shares I’d be asking myself these questions. After all, you’re paying $50 billion for a company that trades completely on the spoils of future dreams.

 Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements.

Book Marcinko: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/dr-david-marcinkos-bookings/

Subscribe: MEDICAL EXECUTIVE POST for curated news, essays, opinions and analysis from the public health, economics, finance, marketing, IT, business and policy management ecosystem.

DOCTORS:

“Insurance & Risk Management Strategies for Doctors” https://tinyurl.com/ydx9kd93

“Fiduciary Financial Planning for Physicians” https://tinyurl.com/y7f5pnox

“Business of Medical Practice 2.0” https://tinyurl.com/yb3x6wr8

HOSPITALS:

“Financial Management Strategies for Hospitals” https://tinyurl.com/yagu567d

“Operational Strategies for Clinics and Hospitals” https://tinyurl.com/y9avbrq5

***

Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: