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Emerging Financial Doomsday Scenarios
By Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA, CMP™
Publisher-in-Chief
Recently, I was pondering the extreme instability that we are facing in this country today, in the two professional sectors in which I work, live and enjoy: [1] health economics and finance; and [2] medicine and medical practice management. In other words; from healthcare and Wall Street reform, to the housing mess and rising unemployment rates; these are challenging and at least, changing times.
The Question
And so, any cogent thinker may reasonably ask: where will the next domestic financial blow-up be? And, what economic doomsday scenario do you predict; and how will it affect the healthcare industrial complex?
The Choices
- Commercial mortgage debt foreclosures because they have lagged the home mortgage fiasco, but may be deeper, wider and larger than ever imagined.
- Life insurance and annuity companies since these entities have watched their investment portfolios sink and their variable annuity business models implode. Moreover, annuity benefits are being cut, premiums are rising and transparency is increasing.
- Health insurance and healthcare reform since the country can not afford the Obama Administration’s current deficit spending and medical initiatives that will spark long term inflation.
- Wall Street, the SEC, FINRA, Financial Planner’s Board of Standards, broker-dealers, etc., as the public demands increased competency, fiduciary accountability and transparency in their dealings within a client-focused culture.
Assessment
Of course, our astute ME-P readers may have other ideas that are certainly welcomed; especially from our informed CPA, CFA, CMP™ and FA readers. Physicians, CEOs, CFOs, nurses, politicians, economists and all ME-P readers and subscribers may opine, as well.
Conclusion
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-David
My vote is for a life insurance and annuity company implosion that may be bigger than the banking implosion.
For example, did you know that after months of asking, life insurance companies have gotten the OK to receive Troubled Asset Relief Program [TARP] funds from the Treasury Department? Among them are: Prudential Financial, Hartford Financial Services Group Inc, Lincoln National Corp, Allstate, the Principal Financial Group Inc and Ameriprise Financial Inc. All receiving preliminary investment approval because they need cash during this recession, as the downturn pressures the value of corporate debt and investments that insurers held to back policies.
And, I recall that some banks, early on in the banking fiasco, declared that in-effect, TARP funds were really a tacit approval from the government that they “deserved them” because of their solidity.
Now, just watch what happens next!
Dr. Benjamin [Dr. B] Barry
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It will be the SEC, itself. Boom!
Link: http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/market-dispatches-051809.aspx?icid=dispatch_090518
Jake
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Dr. Marcinko,
After reading this article, I’d vote for commercial real-estate.
Link: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30850817
Gordon
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Gordon,
The article is spooky enough, all right. Where is Sam Zell, the real-estate tycoon from Chicago when you need him? Oh yeah! He bought into the print-newspaper business. Bad-move!
Brady
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I vote for home owners as job losses rise, and a growing numbers of American homeowners with once solid credit are falling behind on their mortgages, amplifying a new wave of foreclosures.
Link: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30929173
Andrew
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Hi Andy, Brady, Gordan, etc,
According to some pundits, the seeds of this financial bubble were sown way back in 1980 when Congress passed the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act, calling for the phasing out of Regulation Q, which allowed financial institutions to compete with money market funds.
A piece of that legislation was financial cancer: raising the insured deposit maximum to $100,000.
Any thoughts?
Joshua
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The Obama administration just said that it is committed to overhauling the country’s financial rule book by giving the Federal Reserve increased powers to guard against the types of risks that could bring down the entire system. If so, this overhaul of Wall Street could results in a bank rules change seen as the biggest since 1930s.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31354523/ns/business-stocks_and_economy
What do you think; implosion or explosion?
Chadwick
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Dr. Marcinko
Good post. And, we learn Congress is wasting no time in taking on financial reform now that health care is out of the way, but passing a meaningful bill may be nearly as difficult.
The Obama administration made clear that financial reform is the next priority, and the Senate Banking Committee voted in favor of a regulatory overhaul proposal today, just hours after a historic health care reform bill passed. The vote was 13-10, along party lines.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10708174/1/_msnh/financial-reform-moves-to-fore-after-health-care.html?cm_ven=MSNH&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
Any other thoughts?
Guilford
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