A Look at Predictive Health Care Modeling Priorities

Posted on June 27, 2014 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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Definition 

According to Wikipedia,predictive modelingis the process by which a model is created or chosen to try to best predict the probability of an outcome. In many cases the model is chosen on the basis of detection theory to try to guess the probability of an outcome given a set amount of input data, for example given an email determining how likely that it is spam.

Models can use one or more classifiers in trying to determine the probability of a set of data belonging to another set, say spam or ‘ham’.

Assessment

Nearly any regression model can be used for prediction purposes. Broadly speaking, there are two classes of predictive models: parametric and non-parametric. A third class, semi-parametric models, includes features of both.

Parametric models make “specific assumptions with regard to one or more of the population parameters that characterize the underlying distribution(s)”, while non-parametric regressions make fewer assumptions than their parametric counterparts.

Conclusion

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