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Yesterday versus Today?
The Great Depression is often compared to the 2001-08 Great Recession. There are some interesting facts when comparing the Great Depression to the Great Recession. It may even be considered scary when laid out directly in front of you.
The cause of the Great Depression was because people were borrowing too much money, unlike the Great Recession where the banks were lending too much money irresponsibly. Don’t forget that what was once a recession turned into the Great Depression because of unemployment rates reaching 25%, bank failures covering half of all banks, and more.
Both Roosevelt and Obama have used “wall street bankers” as a scapegoat.
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View more interesting facts about the Great Depression and Recession by viewing this infographic presented by Payday Loan.
Assessment
Do you think we are going into another Great Depression in 2022?
Conclusion
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Filed under: "Advisors Only", Experts Invited, Financial Planning, Glossary Terms, Voting Polls | Tagged: bank failures, David E. Marcinko, Great Depression versus Great Recession, unemployment, Wall Street |
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Oh No – Yusko Sees ‘New Abnormal’ or Zero Equity Returns Until 2021
Morgan Creek CEO and CIO Mark Yusko told financial advisors not to expect any significant upside breakout for equities between now and 2021 and suggested they were brainwashed by a condition he called “Bogle-zation.”
http://www.financialadvisormagazine.com/fa-news/11781–yusko-sees-new-abnormal-paltry-equities-returns-until-2021.html
Comments or thoughts?
Liam
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Economy may be slow-growth for long-term
Federal Reserve policymakers wrap up a two-day meeting today with few options to rev up an economy that may be “stuck in the mud,”
http://economywatch.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/01/13054652-economy-may-be-permanently-stuck-in-slow-growth-mode?lite
Liam
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Investors More Pessimistic About Economy [According to New Survey]
U.S. investors are growing gloomier about the economy thanks to the looming federal debt and the uncertainties surrounding the presidential election, as one of the closely watched investor optimism indices declined for the third time this year.
http://www.financial-planning.com/news/investors-more-pessimistic-about-economy-2680325-1.html?ET=financialplanning:e9148:2248552a:&st=email&utm_source=editorial&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=FP_Daily__080212
Grant
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No ‘real’ recovery until 2017?
The recession is officially over, but by the measures Americans care most about, the recovery hasn’t begun.
http://money.msn.com/exchange-traded-fund/no-real-recovery-until-2017-mirhaydari.aspx
New research suggests it won’t really get going for 5 more years.
Liam
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Reports of the Death of Equities Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
It is worth understanding where the returns to equities come from, and why, after a 12-year period in which U.S. equity returns have been negative, we can still be confident that the returns will, after all, be there in the long run.
-Ben Inker
http://www.financial-planning.com/research_roundup/equities-exaggerated-explaining-GMO-2680304-1.html?ET=financialplanning:e10582:86235a:&st=email&utm_source=editorial&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=FP_Daily__081312
Ann Miller RN MHA
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Consumer confidence lowest in nine months
Consumer confidence unexpectedly weakened in August to its lowest in nine months as Americans turned more pessimistic about the short-term outlook, according to a private sector report just released.
http://economywatch.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/28/13526393-consumer-confidence-lowest-in-nine-months?lite
Ted
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Marc Faber sees ‘colossal mess’ brewing in West
Dr. Marcinko and the ME-P: The Swiss investor expects expanding debt burdens and never-ending deficits in Western nations in the next 5 to 10 years.
Video: http://money.msn.com/politics/post.aspx?post=63fd73ad-cd8d-4fd1-8409-8436459aedce
He also says the S&P 500 could see a 20% drop.
Dr. Livingston
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Bull or Bear?
Wells Fargo Securities strategist Gina Martin Adams recently came under pressure from clients skeptical about her views as the major U.S. stock benchmarks run up toward record highs. Her stance, calling for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index ($INX 0.00%) to drop 7.5% to 1,390 by year’s end, is looking increasingly out of step.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/12/wells-fargo-cuts-sp-500-forecast-too/
On the other hand, some believe the US economy is still in recession.
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economywatch/despite-recent-revival-us-economy-still-needs-life-support-1C8145732?ocid=msnhp&pos=4
What do ME-P readers believe?
Kelly
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The Limping Patient
The U.S. economy will — probably — continue to chug along but not without periodic bouts of worry as one data sequence or another shows U.S. growth might be slowing.
Brick
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Bubbles?
Brick – For now, stocks are the best game in town. They’re much stronger than bonds, the metals, commodities and currencies. Just think about it.
Investors have nowhere to go. With interest rates near record lows and paying next to nothing, a savings account or CD simply doesn’t make sense.
And while that’s not good for savers, it’s very good for the stock market, making it more attractive.
Jonah
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The Great Recession wrecked Generation X
A new report finds this demographic lost nearly half its wealth between 2007 and 2010; and it will struggle to recoup.
http://money.msn.com/now/post.aspx?post=fc1c9c39-1c4a-4223-9ecb-2512551ec4b2
Karen
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Yardeni Sees Secular Bull Going – On As Others Wave White Flags
Market strategist Ed Yardeni sees the secular bull market continuing as various bears like Nouriel Roubini and John Mauldin either are turning optimistic on equities or adjusting their endgame.
http://www.fa-mag.com/news/yardeni-sees-secular-bull-continuing-as-roubini–mauldin-wave-white-flags-15848.html?section=43
So, was I wrong with my bear call?
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Setting the Scene – Today’s Market Environment
Bad news, negativity, and fear sells.
For this reason, there are always more financial analysts in the media predicting market crashes than rallies, and CNBC tends to focus on hurdles to investment growth rather than optimistic indicators.
However, on October 16th, the day congress agreed on a debt deal, Josh Brown (one of my favorite analysts) took an alternative approach and itemized the positive factors in today’s investment environment.
Here is what he came up with:
• There is a debt deal in the works that removes the ceiling and related draconian cuts from the discussion until at least February. Out of sight, out of mind.
• There is no election this fall.
• There is no war with Syria and high level talks are happening with Iran for the first time in decades.
• The incoming Fed Chairperson is the most dovish in the institution’s 100 year history. There will be no taper talk whatsoever so long as employment data remains muted.
• Stock markets around the world are selling at fair to absurdly cheap valuations.
• The banks are as highly capitalized as they have ever been.
• Home prices are back to long-term trends and appreciation continues despite the recent mortgage slowdown – normalization being the operative word.
• US households reclaimed the 2007 peak in total net worth and have now surpassed it.
• Small and mid cap stocks are at all-time highs and yet still under-owned by the largest pools of capital in the US – pensions, endowments, and insurance companies.
• Going back 110 years, when the Dow has been up during the first half of the year, it has finished the year strong with gains during the second half of the year 70% of the time.
• Hedge funds are at their highest net short positions since January and have massively trailed every equity benchmark you can think of.
As my clients know, I don’t consider myself to be in the business of predicting market movements. My job is to create balanced, diversified portfolios with an appropriate amount of risk for my individual clients. Frankly, I don’t believe anyone is capable of consistently forecasting investment returns correctly.
However, I do believe Mr. Brown has done a good job of itemizing the factors in today’s world that could potentially lead to a positive investment environment with lower uncertainty than normal. He named his article “Rocket Fuel” and the five day period after the piece was published resulted in the best one-week gain for the market in over three months.
Lon Jefferies MBA CFP
http://www.NetWorthAdvice.com
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All time high
Dr. Marcinko – DOW 15,734.04 today.
Even as former NYSE CEO Richard Grasso predicts a 5-10% pullback.
Na-Na – Na-Bo-Bo.
Chad
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5 reasons to expect a correction
Chad – While optimism goes a long way in capital markets, stock prices can only defy gravity so long before reality beats back unrealistic expectations.
http://money.msn.com/investing/5-reasons-to-expect-a-correction
Jonah
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Financial Advisors on Their 2014 Economic Forecasts
Financial Advisors’ overall outlook has particularly dimmed when predicting where the economy is headed over the next 12 months, according to an Advisor Confidence Index.
http://wealthmanagement.com/advisor-trend-monitor/advisors-their-2014-economic-forecasts?NL=WM-10&Issue=WM-10_20131206_WM-10_390&YM_RID=marcinkoadvisors%40msn.com&YM_MID=1437800&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_7
Here are some top advisors’ forecasts for 2014.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Not for ME
The economists say that the US economy is finally accelerating six years after the start of the Great Recession.
Why? Housing and stock prices are rising, the unemployment rate keeps falling, and the government’s budget deficit is shrinking.
So, why does it feel like the recession never really ended?
Rivka
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Bear market?
I don’t think this current mini stock market pull-back is the “big one” yet; but the bull is starting to wobble with the end of Fed QEs, and corporate profits diving.
Frank
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Random Note Regarding Stock Market Performance
We typically see three stock market dips of 5% or more every year and one corrections of more than 10% every 20 months.
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865591668/Start-thinking-about-retirement-while-in-your-20s-experts-advise.html?pg=all&utm_source=Feb+2014+Lon&utm_campaign=Lon+Feb+Newsletter&utm_medium=email
As Josh Brown, one of my favorite market commentators says: “Remember your ABC’s — Always Be Cool.”
Lon Jefferies MBA CFP
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The New Value Proposition In US Stocks
Lon – Investors are wondering whether the bull run in U.S. equities is over.
http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/Article/3306043/The-New-Value-Proposition-in-US-Stocks.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+institutionalinvestor/dQyC+%28Institutional+Investor:+Asset+Management%29#.UwIL35WYb5p
With the economy gathering steam and interest rates likely to head higher, some think stocks are still the best game in town.
What do you think?
Remy
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