About the Phillips Curve

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[By staff reporters]

An important concept in macroeconomics

When Federal Reserve officials meet to finally decide whether to raise interest rates for the first time in nine years, one question will be front and center according to Neil Irwin?


[Rate of Change of Wages against Unemployment

United Kingdom 1913–1948 from Phillips (1958)]


Question: How much faith should be placed in a line on a graph first drawn by a New Zealand economist nearly six decades ago, based on data on wages and employment in Britain dating to the 1860s?

The 57-Year-Old Chart That Is Dividing the Fed



So, if you believe in the traditional Phillips curve, as some at the Fed do, inflation should be taking off any day now?


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